poll analysts, immediately after the declaration of results of 2019 lok sabha polls, will come out with their versions of why the winner won and why the loser lost. it’s easy. the tricky part is to analyse the situation beforehand and wisely and assertively predict the outcome. we are doing this part here with what will happen and why will that happen.
let’s start with why. it’s 2019 and after 60 months in office, the modi-led bjp has only limited success to showcase. this limited success is nothing but the work-as-usual of the government and bureaucracy machinery, for example, increased accessibility to lpg, road construction and government-sponsored loans. in 2014, the bjp won the mandate on the promise of radically transforming the socio-economic landscape of india. 5 years on, virtually nothing has changed.
bjp’s claim of multiple schemes for unprivileged and vulnerable groups also falls flat. take a case of mudra loan. although the government claims lakhs of crores of money has been disbursed, the situation at ground level is pitiful. the real problem is that the government departments, whether of centre or states or autonomous such as banks, are still functioning in the same old fashion- no sense of responsibility and zero accountability.
another major factor that will shape the 2019 lok sabha outcome is the flawed bjp campaign of 2019. it relies on narcissism, machismo and chauvinism. yes, narcissism. the call ‘ab namunkin bhi munkin hai’ will only serve as a deterrent to bjp’s prospects. what is happening is bjp projecting modi as a raja and asserting that much success has already been achieved in past 5 years. yes, chauvinism will win the bjp votes in metro and tier-1 cities, the party, however, is set to score badly elsewhere.
now the opposition. almost every major regional party will perform better than how they fared in 2014. but that will not make them the kingmaker. the surprise will be congress’s unexpected comeback with at least 160-180 seats. this way, congress will easily gather support from other parties and yes, rahul gandhi shall be the new prime minister.
lastly, two most important factors. One, bjp’s poll campaign has reduced rahul gandhi to an underdog and democracies love underdogs, especially india where rural inhabitants, dalit and poor will empathize with rahul. And two, yogi adityanath. this one man is the bjp’s biggest mistake in 5 years. his ascendance to the top sends a message that bjp gives faith and caste politics precedence over inclusive development.
the verdict will be clear- bjp will win less than 180 seats. congress will win 160-180 seats and with the support of allies will form the new UPA government. it will then be best for bjp to introspect and understand that more than chauvinism or other jingoistic calls, development is the most critical poll issue in india, at least for next 20 years.