how to read 2019 lok sabha poll results

there are three major players in 2019 lok sabha elections- the ruling bjp, main opposition party congress and a vague third front, which can comprise of various regional parties led by leaders including Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Naveen Patnaik and others. There can be a number of outcomes. One can be either the bjp or congress attaining absolute majority in the house and forming the new government with ease. however, chances of this are extremely slim. In the second scenario, a pre-poll alliance, nda or upa, may attain majority. However, if any of the factions, nda or upa, falls short of majority, it will be comparatively easier for upa to muster support from those who may play the kingmaker. Last scenario is of the undeclared third front hitting the majority mark with combined seats from all parties in this faction. This can lead to a probable fight over the office of prime minister and key ministerial berths. having noticed what may

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here’s what and why it will happen in 2019 lok sabha elections

poll analysts, immediately after the declaration of results of 2019 lok sabha polls, will come out with their versions of why the winner won and why the loser lost. it’s easy. the tricky part is to analyse the situation beforehand and wisely and assertively predict the outcome. we are doing this part here with what will happen and why will that happen. let’s start with why. it’s 2019 and after 60 months in office, the modi-led bjp has only limited success to showcase. this limited success is nothing but the work-as-usual of the government and bureaucracy machinery, for example, increased accessibility to lpg, road construction and government-sponsored loans. in 2014, the bjp won the mandate on the promise of radically transforming the socio-economic landscape of india. 5 years on, virtually nothing has changed. bjp’s claim of multiple schemes for unprivileged and vulnerable groups also falls flat. take a case of mudra loan. although the government claims lakhs of crores of

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rahaf al-qunun’s saudi escape has lessons for indians

qunun, a saudi woman, who fled her country to find refuge in a more liberal and welcoming society, grabbed international attention recently. her transit at a thailand airport, her barricading herself in the hotel room to prevent authorities from forcibly handing her back to her family, subsequent support from human rights activists, expeditious processing of her application by the unhcr and canada finally granting her asylum, isn’t just a plain news story. having reached canada, qunun breathed a sigh of relief and expressed joy over new prospects in a new country where she could pursue education, have a job and live according to her will. almost at the same time here in india we come across reports of violence against a woman who entered the sabrimala temple, escaping the eye of vigilantes. almost no mainstream political party would come out in the defence of this woman whose only ‘sin’ is that she abided by the ruling of the supreme court

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is india becoming a regressive theocracy under bjp?

aitzaz hasan bangash was a pakistani boy whose story not many in india know. he was killed in 2014 while preventing a suicide bomber from attacking his school that was being attended by 2000 students. there is another name, bibi aisha, an afghan woman. she was given to a talibani fighter by her family when she was 12 and a few years later she was found with her nose and ears cut off. but why cite these incidents when talking about india which is the world’s largest democracy and has a thriving economy? it is because the aforementioned cases can be juxtaposed with many recent happenings in india, although one can term this as extrapolation. mobs all across the country have inhumanly killed members of a minority faith on suspicion of cow slaughter. not only this, members from the backward caste were brutally thrashed when performing their job of skinning dead cows. and in yet another incident in uttar pradesh’s

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from modi-wave to ‘modism’

politics is an unethical job. one may be completely honest towards his office, but political compulsions, more so in a democracy where one fears a defeat in subsequent polls, rarely allow politicians to abide by the virtuous code of conduct. in india, a leader has to manage different quarters with dissimilar demands and yet must make sure that all these conflicting interests are taken care of. so, even if we disapprove of these facts, the reality would not change- a strictly uncompromising leader still remains a distant dream. but when it comes to compromises, there are legitimate boundaries that shall never be breached. in the past 4 years, the modi-led bjp government not only breached these boundaries but they treaded so violently into unethical zones that the once seemingly invincible modi now stands vulnerable to electoral defeats. but where did he go so wrong? politicians in a country like india, where much of the population still faces various socio-economic impediments

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here’s what’s wrong with bjp and modi

more than 4years have passed since the country witnessed a watershed moment where a single party won electoral majority after decades of fractured mandates. narendra modi became country’s prime minister, and let us tell you why almost every second voter was thrilled- they saw the rise of a ‘chai-wallah’ from being a boy with no political patronage to occupying nation’s most powerful office. modi’s bjp could win the imagination of the electorate because one, the public found the only other alternative, congress, as a party of the powerful and corrupt; and two, modi was projected as the only savior of the poor, middle-class and corporates. another underpinning was the hindu-supremacy narrative that was propagated superbly through social media platforms by depicting the majority faith as reeling under appeasement politics of non-nda parties. modi has achieved some goals, for example, financial inclusion, increased pace of electrification and paving of new roads, a new indirect tax regime and a seemingly effective law

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why narendra modi may not go down as a great leader

one needs to revolutionise the prevailing settings in order to be remembered as a great leader. what narendra modi has done or achieved to date isn’t anything extraordinary. he was blessed with oil prices at their historical low, and although such initiatives as mudra and skill india are promising, these are not enough to earn the prime minister the tag of ‘a great reformer’ or to bring the promised socio-economic progress. what lacks is the will to alter the political landscape of india that is inundated with dishonest and prejudiced politicians. to form governments in states, the bjp not only welcomed goons but also has compromised the ideals of good governance. present bjp leaders not only publicly endorse accused and convicted men, they also try to make a hero out of them only to gain electoral support. unless politics of country is rid of vested interests, no reform can sustain in the medium and long run. second, india’s public sector

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the ‘underdog theory’ for 2019 lok sabha elections

the election of donald trump as the president of the united states in 2017 was an unexpected outcome of a contest that experts believed was totally tilted toward hillary clinton. allegations ranging from vested business interests to inappropriate conduct with women in the past couldn’t stop the americans to vote for the ‘underdog’, who was simply and brutally written off by political analysts and mainstream media. this is what electoral politics is all about. in 2014 general elections, no one predicted such landslide victory of the modi-led bjp party, it still happened. for the upcoming 2019 lok sabha polls, experts can only predict either a majority for the national democratic alliance (nda) or a fractured mandate with no clear majority to any party. indeed, the indian national congress, in view of most political analysts, stands no chance to come up with maximum number of seats in the parliament. of course, the bjp has delivered on some aspects. free lpg connections

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time is now for banking sector reforms

the bjp is in power in most indian states and its feat in the north-east is an evidence that voters are decisively backing the pro-development and reformist stance of the prime minister. so the perfect time to bring long-pending reforms in banking is now. when indira gandhi brought bank nationalisation in 1969, the move that was although opposed by many in her own party, went down well with the general populace, only because people viewed it as furthering their interests. even at that time, nationalising banks wasn’t the most preferred action to bring a change in how banks functioned; it was thought that banks were operating as agents of few corporates, while the needs of underprivileged classes were not being paid heed to. the then Indira-led government, prior to bringing the nationalisation ordinance, brought the scheme of social control over banks (which couldn’t last long), where a national credit council was established with finance minister as head and representatives of

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a simple way to create jobs in india

what do you expect would trigger organic job creation? increased economic activity? and for this increased economic activity do you want new enterprises to come up or the existing ones to expand? if this is the case, you may be at fault while pursuing the goal of job creation. our country, india, is a typical example of how population rise outpaces creation of new economic activities. you may come up with best measures – liberalisation or incentives to new enterprises – but the impact of these measures wouldn’t be enough to result into creation of as much employment opportunities as the country seeks. a simple and untapped way out to this problem is expanding the existing economic activities in such a manner that already existing enterprises see an increase in their appetite to absorb more unemployed youth. take an example. a public sector bank in india works from 10 am to 5 pm and remains shut on alternate saturdays and

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