how to read 2019 lok sabha poll results

there are three major players in 2019 lok sabha elections- the ruling bjp, main opposition party congress and a vague third front, which can comprise of various regional parties led by leaders including Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Naveen Patnaik and others. There can be a number of outcomes. One can be either the bjp or congress attaining absolute majority in the house and forming the new government with ease. however, chances of this are extremely slim. In the second scenario, a pre-poll alliance, nda or upa, may attain majority. However, if any of the factions, nda or upa, falls short of majority, it will be comparatively easier for upa to muster support from those who may play the kingmaker. Last scenario is of the undeclared third front hitting the majority mark with combined seats from all parties in this faction. This can lead to a probable fight over the office of prime minister and key ministerial berths. having noticed what may

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here’s what and why it will happen in 2019 lok sabha elections

poll analysts, immediately after the declaration of results of 2019 lok sabha polls, will come out with their versions of why the winner won and why the loser lost. it’s easy. the tricky part is to analyse the situation beforehand and wisely and assertively predict the outcome. we are doing this part here with what will happen and why will that happen. let’s start with why. it’s 2019 and after 60 months in office, the modi-led bjp has only limited success to showcase. this limited success is nothing but the work-as-usual of the government and bureaucracy machinery, for example, increased accessibility to lpg, road construction and government-sponsored loans. in 2014, the bjp won the mandate on the promise of radically transforming the socio-economic landscape of india. 5 years on, virtually nothing has changed. bjp’s claim of multiple schemes for unprivileged and vulnerable groups also falls flat. take a case of mudra loan. although the government claims lakhs of crores of

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the ‘underdog theory’ for 2019 lok sabha elections

the election of donald trump as the president of the united states in 2017 was an unexpected outcome of a contest that experts believed was totally tilted toward hillary clinton. allegations ranging from vested business interests to inappropriate conduct with women in the past couldn’t stop the americans to vote for the ‘underdog’, who was simply and brutally written off by political analysts and mainstream media. this is what electoral politics is all about. in 2014 general elections, no one predicted such landslide victory of the modi-led bjp party, it still happened. for the upcoming 2019 lok sabha polls, experts can only predict either a majority for the national democratic alliance (nda) or a fractured mandate with no clear majority to any party. indeed, the indian national congress, in view of most political analysts, stands no chance to come up with maximum number of seats in the parliament. of course, the bjp has delivered on some aspects. free lpg connections

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